Estimates
Source: S&P Capital IQ consensus via Xpressfeed · Generated 2026-07-28.
The consensus tape has turned. Revenue surprises decayed from +7.2% in Q3 2024 to -4.2% in Q1 2026, the largest miss in the visible record, and the FY2027 normalized-EPS consensus has been cut to EUR 0.69 from EUR 0.75 thirty days ago against a revenue line that barely moved. The forward shape still embeds heavy compounding, with revenue growth stepping down from about +21% in FY2026 to about +10% in FY2029 while EBITDA and free cash flow grow faster than revenue in every visible year. Coverage does the rest of the talking: 21 analysts on FY2027 revenue, 3 on normalized EPS, and 2 on all of FY2029.
Revenue surprises decayed from +7.2% to -4.2%, with three straight misses
Current sequences by metric: Revenue: 3 consecutive misses; EPS (normalized): 1 consecutive miss.
Currency: EUR · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Consensus is captured before each actual first became effective.
| Quarter | Metric | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2026 | Revenue | €361.66m | €346.52m | -4.2% | Miss |
| Q1 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | €0.05 | -€0.01 | -118.8% | Miss |
| Q4 FY2025 | Revenue | €369.58m | €368.89m | -0.2% | Miss |
| Q4 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | €0.10 | €0.20 | +112.2% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2025 | Revenue | €294.86m | €292.05m | -1.0% | Miss |
| Q3 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | €0.07 | €0.12 | +60.0% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2025 | Revenue | €315.48m | €317.79m | +0.7% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | €0.03 | €0.01 | -65.7% | Miss |
| Q1 FY2025 | Revenue | €307.39m | €311.23m | +1.3% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | €0.05 | €0.01 | -72.7% | Miss |
| Q4 FY2024 | Revenue | €294.60m | €307.07m | +4.2% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | €0.04 | €0.01 | -81.9% | Miss |
| Q3 FY2024 | Revenue | €237.95m | €255.17m | +7.2% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | €0.03 | €0.08 | +160.5% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2024 | Revenue | €263.39m | €278.42m | +5.7% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | €0.05 | €0.00 | -91.0% | Miss |
Estimate momentum
The EPS cut is recent rather than gradual: the number was higher 30 days ago than it was 90 days ago before dropping to EUR 0.69. FY2028 revenue tells a similar story one year out, sitting about 4% below its 180-day-ago level though it has firmed about 1% in the past month.
Currency: EUR · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Point-in-time consensus; Δ90d is Now versus 90d.
| Metric | FY | 180d | 90d | 30d | Now | Δ90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2027 | €0.74 | €0.72 | €0.75 | €0.69 | -4.8% |
| Revenue | FY2027 | €1.81bn | €1.80bn | €1.78bn | €1.78bn | -1.3% |
Revenue growth steps down from +21% to +10% while EBITDA and FCF outpace it
EBITDA and free cash flow are modelled to grow faster than revenue in every year through FY2029. Coverage falls away as the years go out, from 21 analysts on FY2027 revenue to 13 on FY2028 and 2 on FY2029.
Currency: EUR · Scale: money in millions, absolute · YoY uses the prior fiscal year from the feed; analyst count and range use the first displayed period.
| Metric | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | YoY | Analysts | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | €1.56bn | €1.78bn | €1.98bn | €2.18bn | +20.6% | 21 | €1.52bn / €1.56bn |
| EBITDA | €390.65m | €482.97m | €563.57m | €671.45m | +31.6% | 21 | €362.59m / €400.15m |
| Free cash flow | €227.00m | €296.84m | €375.50m | €492.50m | +27.1% | — | — |
Revenue estimates cluster within 8%; the FY2027 EPS high is double the low
FY2027 GAAP EPS runs from EUR 0.45 to EUR 0.93 across 18 analysts, and FY2027 net income from EUR 141.1m to EUR 270.7m across 15. The argument is about what falls through to earnings, not about how much revenue arrives.
Currency: EUR · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Spread/mean is absolute high-low divided by absolute mean.
| Metric | Period | Mean | Low–high | Spread/mean | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (GAAP) | FY2027E | €0.66 | €0.45–€0.93 | 73.3% | 18 |
| Net income (GAAP) | FY2027E | €192.65m | €141.10m–€270.70m | 67.3% | 15 |
| Net income (GAAP) | FY2028E | €257.98m | €212.76m–€319.60m | 41.4% | 10 |
| EBITDA | FY2027E | €482.97m | €439.55m–€506.97m | 14.0% | 21 |
| Revenue | FY2028E | €1.98bn | €1.92bn–€2.06bn | 7.5% | 13 |
22 targets span EUR 13.11 to EUR 30.69, and no analyst carries a sell
Sixteen buys and two outperforms stand against four holds, with no sell or underperform ratings. The mean target of EUR 18.59 sits above the median of EUR 17.24, so the average is pulled up by the top of the range; this source carries no share price, so no upside is computed here.
Currency: EUR · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Analyst counts shown explicitly.
| Street view | Reading | Analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Recommendation mix | Buy 16, Outperform 2, Hold 4, Underperform 0, Sell 0 | 22 |
| Consensus score | 1.45 | 22 |
| Target price | mean €18.59; median €17.24; high €30.69; low €13.11 | 22 |
Normalized EPS rests on three analysts, and FY2029 on two
Normalized EPS carries just three estimates in every annual period it covers, against 18 on FY2027 GAAP EPS, so the revision signal above rests on a narrow panel. FY2029 revenue, EBITDA and EPS each rest on two estimates, and the mean gross margin falls from 75.6% in FY2027 to 65.7% in FY2028 and 61.3% in FY2029 as the contributing panel thins.