Models
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 18 brokers · 337 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-23.
Sportradar's models are near-unanimous on revenue and wide open below it: 18 brokers cluster on FY-2026 revenue, then spread FY-2027 net income from €99.8m to €270.7m. The shared story is a margin bend — EBITDA margin 22.6% in FY-2025 to 28.6% in FY-2028 — bought by sport rights expense growth decelerating faster than revenue. Betting gaming content supplies most of the incremental top line, while sports performance and integrity services are small enough that the models barely move on them. Product-level detail rests on 9 to 11 brokers, and several of those lines have not been revised since 7 May 2026.
Margin, not growth, is the modelled story: EBITDA margin 22.6% to 28.6% as revenue growth halves
Rights expense growth falls below revenue growth from FY-2027, and that is where the margin expansion comes from. The Rule of 40 reading peaks in FY-2026 at 45.7 and slips thereafter, so the margin gain does not fully offset the growth fade.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total revenue | €1.29bn | €1.56bn | €1.77bn | €1.96bn | +20.5% | 18 |
| Cost driver | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sport rights expenses (including amortization of capitalized sport rights licenses) | €403.47m | €484.77m | €534.72m | €583.05m | +20.2% | 16 |
| Profit | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EBITDA - Operating | €292.32m | €390.35m | €481.72m | €561.57m | +33.5% | 18 |
| EBITDA margin(%) | 22.6% | 25.1% | 27.2% | 28.6% | +2.4pt | 18 |
| Operating income/(loss) | €162.42m | €241.70m | €325.63m | €395.99m | +48.8% | 17 |
| Drop-through | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Incremental margin(%) | 14.3% | 43.5% | 39.4% | 37.0% | +29.2pt | 16 |
| Rule of 40, Revenue growth + EBITDA margin(%) | 39.4% | 45.7% | 41.0% | 39.9% | +6.4pt | 18 |
| Cash | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| FCF margin(%) | 14.1% | 14.3% | 15.6% | 17.5% | +0.3pt | 16 |
Betting gaming content is the engine — +28% in FY-2026 and most of the incremental euro thereafter
The split between segments is stark: betting technology & solutions is modelled to grow several times faster than sports content, technology & services in FY-2026. Sports performance is the telling negative, modelled to shrink 2.7% in FY-2026 before a modest recovery. Integrity services grows fast off a base too small to matter to the group.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Segment | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Revenue - Betting technology & solutions | €1.04bn | €1.28bn | €1.46bn | €1.63bn | +23.6% | 16 |
| Revenue - Sports content, technology & services | €253.29m | €273.00m | €310.06m | €344.75m | +7.8% | 16 |
| Product | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Revenue - Betting gaming content | €802.48m | €1.03bn | €1.18bn | €1.31bn | +28.3% | 11 |
| Revenue - Managed betting services | €237.52m | €256.30m | €288.81m | €326.32m | +7.9% | 11 |
| Revenue - Marketing media services | €186.11m | €204.48m | €233.53m | €264.95m | +9.9% | 11 |
| Revenue - Sports performance | €46.93m | €45.67m | €49.03m | €52.18m | -2.7% | 11 |
| Revenue - Integrity services | €19.12m | €23.34m | €26.77m | €30.85m | +22.1% | 11 |
Quarterly path
EBITDA margin runs 19.6% in 1QFY-2026 against 30.8% in 3QFY-2026. Modelled 1QFY-2027 and 2QFY-2027 margins fall back to 22.5% and 22.8%, so annual margin expansion is back-half weighted rather than steady through the year.
| Line | 3QFY-2025A | 4QFY-2025A | 1QFY-2026A | 2QFY-2026A | 3QFY-2026E | 4QFY-2026E | 1QFY-2027E | 2QFY-2027E | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue - Betting technology & solutions | €240.97m | €296.84m | €291.97m | €315.35m | €307.59m | €372.87m | €330.02m | €358.33m | 16 |
| Sport rights expenses (including amortization of capitalized sport rights licenses) | €72.07m | €120.70m | €122.80m | €128.89m | €92.57m | €141.02m | €134.26m | €140.48m | 16 |
| EBITDA - Operating | €78.20m | €85.40m | €71.03m | €79.40m | €116.82m | €128.18m | €89.76m | €98.84m | 17 |
| EBITDA margin(%) | 26.5% | 23.0% | 19.6% | 20.7% | 30.8% | 28.6% | 22.5% | 22.8% | 17 |
Where broker models disagree
| Line | Period | Median | Q1–Q3 | Min–max | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income/(loss) | FY-2027E | €186.10m | €159.76m–€203.14m | €99.82m–€270.71m | 17 |
| Non-capitalized sport right expenses | FY-2027E | €172.74m | €170.12m–€196.46m | €142.98m–€205.83m | 10 |
| Incremental margin(%) | FY-2027E | 40.5% | 35.3%–42.6% | 29.5%–52.0% | 16 |
| Free cash flow (FCF) | FY-2027E | €285.03m | €273.20m–€302.51m | €166.40m–€321.82m | 15 |
| Revenue - Managed betting services | FY-2027E | €287.73m | €274.62m–€303.23m | €254.21m–€318.92m | 10 |
Product splits carry May revision dates; segment EBITDA rests on one broker
Marketing media services, sports performance, integrity services and the sports content, technology & services segment were last revised 7 May 2026, while total revenue and EBITDA carry 23 July 2026. The segment-level EBITDA lines in this feed rest on a single broker and are one analyst's view rather than consensus, so they are excluded above.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.